Canadian farmers will plant more canola in 2026, although lower yields mean production and ending stocks will fall, according to Agriculture
Canada’s first new-crop supply-demand estimates released Wednesday.
Meanwhile, barley and wheat (excl durum) area is expected to increase, while durum declines and oats hold about steady.
Ag Canada is forecasting this year’s canola planted area at just over 22 million acres, up 2% from 2025 and potentially the highest since 2021 when 22.27 million acres went into the ground. The expected increase was attributed to “crop rotation considerations, waning prices for other crops, and strong domestic demand.”
But with the average yield forecast to drop back to 38.7 bu/acre from 44.7 bu in 2025, production is forecast at 19.2 million tonnes, 12% below last year’s record high of 21.804 million. The smaller crop is projected to more than offset a heavy old-crop carry-in, meaning the total new-crop supply of 22.05 million would fall below the 2025-26 total supply of 23.501 million.
Given the expansion in processing capacity, domestic crush is expected to rise to a new record of 12.5 million tonnes in 2026-27, pressuring total exports to 7.5 million, Ag Canada said.
New-crop ending stocks are seen at 1.65 million tonnes, 40% below the current forecast for 2025-26 of 2.75 million, but still slightly above the 2024-25 stocks level of 1.597 million.
The average 2026-27 canola price is seen at $640/tonne, down from $665 for the current year and $677 in 2024-25.
Durum:
Durum planted area is forecast to fall almost 7% year-over-year to about 6 million acres in 2026, with production seen at 5.668 million tonnes, versus 7.135 million last year. Larger carry-in stocks are expected to partly offset the smaller crop, leaving ending stocks at 1.1 million tonnes, down 400,000 from the forecasted 2025-26 stocks. The average Saskatchewan CWAD No. 1, 13% protein price is forecast at $285/tonne, up $5 from a year earlier.
Wheat (excl durum):
Canadian wheat area is forecast to rise about 2% to just under 21 million acres in 2026, though production is expected to fall 11% to 29.31 million tonnes due to lower yields. Ending stocks are projected to decline to 4.6 million tonnes from 6 million in 2025-26, with exports seen steady at 23.2 million tonnes. The average CWRS No. 1, 13.5% protein price is forecast at $270/tonne, up $10 from the current year.
Barley:
Canada’s barley seeded area is projected to increase 6% to 6.51 million acres, but production is forecast to tumble to 8.45 million tonnes from 9.725 million last year as yields normalize. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 1 million tonnes, 700,000 below the forecast for 2025-26. The Lethbridge average barley price is forecast at $270/tonne, unchanged year on year.
Oats:
Canadian oat area is forecast to hold near 3 million acres in 2026-27, while production is seen falling to 3.55 million tonnes from 3.92 million. Ending stocks are projected to decline to 80,000 tonnes to 750,000 despite higher carry-in supplies. The CBOT oat price is forecast at $300/tonne, unchanged from the previous year.
